An uncertain future,
a clear dream

Everyone in town ?

A clear majority (57%) of city dwellers believes that global demographic pressure will eventually have a negative impact on their city and they are very apprehensive about the prospect. They dream of far more friendly cities.

However, this concern is in fact very localized: it refers above all to Mexico City (75%), Alexandria (73%),and to a lesser extent Tokyo (70%), all three of which have a very high population density. At the opposite extreme, in North American cities, people are relatively unconcerned about this phenomenon (35%, compared with 28% overall). Finally, the idea that population growth is a good thing is not raised in any of the cities covered by the study. The context is therefore relatively defensive.

Even so, however high the level of concern, the respondents still mainly believe that humans will continue to live in cities and in rural areas, even in the distant future. Despite today's officially accepted projections, only one third of the respondents consider that the day will come when everyone, or almost everyone, will live in cities. Europeans and North Americans are the most skeptical about this trend. On the other hand, 49% of the inhabitants of Alexandria, 44% of those of Shanghai and Beijing and 45% of those of Mexico City consider that this will eventually be the case.

Young people seem to share this view: 46% of 15 to 18-year olds and 39% of 19 to 24-year olds consider that in the future, everyone will be living in cities, whereas just 30% of the over 35-year olds share this view.

Order and disorder

In city dwellers'minds, this demographic growth will mostly lead to increased urban density, and it is in fact this that they most often fear. Take for example what this inhabitant of Alexandria had to say about the issue:

"If I think of what the city will be like in 30 years' time, I see a crowd of people, all on top of each other because of a lack of space."

At the same time, the city of the future will be better organized, in particular because of the development of public transportation, and the increasingly rationalized management of equipment and services. In this respect, there is overriding confidence.

On the other hand, changes to personal living conditions are not viewed with the same level of confidence.

Today's city dwellers express considerable personal concern about their working hours, how they will cope with stress, and the superficial nature of human contacts.

Consequently, there is a hiatus between the city that people see as managing to improve as a collective system, and people's "personal future", viewed with more trepidation, and the underlying question of "will I be able to keep up with the pace of tomorrow's city ?".

"In an ideal city, things would be perfect. Everyone would be happy, people would reach out to each other, there would be no solitude, no pollution, no cars." A Parisian

Towards a calmer city

The ranking of city dwellers' long-term aspirations, implicating the future generations, brings to light those values around which the issues for the future revolve.
First, the future generations' city will have to be safer (35%).

At first view, this means personal and property safety, but it is necessary to add an economic or even social aspect to the issue of safety. This concern is particularly high among the inhabitants of Berlin, Prague, Chicago, Tokyo and above all Mexico City (64%).
To a lesser extent, people would like the city to be less polluted (24%), with better public transportation (21%) and less stress (20%).

The desire for a city with more open spaces comes next.
This desire is particularly strong among the respondents in Paris and Lyon (28 and 35% respectively).

Finally, tomorrow's city must be less densely populated.
The Chinese cities in the study stand out in this respect with a response rate twice that of the average.

Large or small: the question is open

There is no commonly shared view about the ideal size for the city of the future. For a little under one half of the respondents, the ideal size is the same as the size of the city in which they currently live. This is true for a majority of people living in Paris, Lyon, Berlin, Prague, Chicago, Sydney and Tokyo.

For the others, they are not entirely happy about the current size of their city. The city of the future should be either smaller or bigger, but not what it is today.

The younger respondents would like a larger city (27% of under 35-year olds), which should be viewed against their attraction for meeting others; whereas their elders, who claim to want a quieter life, tend to opt for a smaller city (40% of over 35-year olds).

"Tomorrow's city will be white, green, transparent. A quiet place." A Sydneysider

The ideal city: head over heart

Paradoxically, few dreams seem to surround the ideal city.
It seems rather to be based on pragmatic and rational desires integrating several factors.

The city is and must remain a place of production for its inhabitants. The notion of a dynamic economy, closely linked with the urban space, is never brought into question. However, this dimension must not be incompatible with the urban environment's move towards greater clarity,spaciousness and an emphasis on nature, less grayness, pollution and noise.

This urban environment, as it is depicted by the city dwellers interviewed,must tend towards the beautiful and the ecological. They all agree there should be a greater emphasis on the aesthetic which, in addition to the immediate pleasure it would afford, must contribute to relieving the sense of oppression felt in the urban environment, and the integration of environmental standards into building codes, with an emphasis on more natural materials, such as timber, steel, glass, etc.

The built environment must therefore be better designed, more ecological and more functional, growing upwards rather than outwards, especially in the view of the younger respondents.

A central issue, at the core of urban lifestyles and environmental issues, automobile traffic is widely condemned. Many city dwellers would like it to be quite simply banned.

Tomorrow's city must also be a human city, enabling more authentic, more personal and less superficial relations between its inhabitants. Technological density is seen, in this respect, as a facilitator of contact, providing that it does not lead to a more virtual existence.
Wishful thinking ? City dwellers, as if trying to convince themselves, call for greater involvement in the city's life, its social relations and good environmental practices: a paradox for city dwellers who feel so little inclined to become actively involved in their city.